By now you’ve probably heard that one day we’ll be zooming around in cars that drive themselves. Is it a dead cert, or too good to be true? We explore the concept of driverless vehicles, what work has been done so far, and look at what they might operate in everyday people’s lives.
Let’s travel back in time…
The first driverless car actually dates back to 1926, when a vehicle called American Wonder was operated around the streets of New York City. In almost one hundred years since this voyage, there have been significant research from car and tech companies, universities, and governments into driverless technology. Even Australia is getting in on the act, with the NSW government recently announcing it is setting up a fund to expanding driverless trials in the state.
How do they work?
Advocates of driverless cars say that they will reduce road deaths caused by human error, improve the mobility of disabled and elderly people, ease congestion on the roads, and reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
Their advantages over human drivers are because the car is covered in sensors, including on the roof that can see in all directions, giving them greater situational awareness a person behind the wheel. This means they can map features and create 3D map of the surrounds every time an equipped car drives a particular route, spotting everything from lane markings to road signs to accidents.
It is estimated that more than half a million lines of code powers the algorithms and systems that make these move—in context, that’s about 10 times the amount of code in an iPhone app, and five times the amount in a pacemaker.
Are we there yet?
The autonomous rubber really hit the road in 2016, with Uber’s first driverless truck delivery of beer in the United States showing the public what the future holds.
Yet though the technology is rapidly advancing, it is estimated that for the next decade, self-driving cars will be geo-fenced, meaning will be restricted to where they can drive. This is due to safety reasons, but also because autonomous vehicles need loads of data to be collected before they—and we—can move with confidence.
What about the downsides?
While there’s plenty of upsides to driverless cars, many safety risks need to be navigated before we’ll see them zooming down the street. The biggest fear is how they will operate in unpredictable situations like sharing the road with pedestrians and cyclists. In March this year, these fears were born out when a self-driving Uber testing in Arizona struck and killed a woman as she crossed the street.
Proponents of driverless cars say they can identify pedestrians by using a combination of cameras, radar, and LIDAR (which uses pulses of light to detect movement), but the technology will need to be improved before they come into common use.
When will I see them?
You’re probably most likely to see them in service use, such as Uber and Lyft ridesharing, or delivering pizza or Amazon packages. These aren’t likely to burst onto the scene just yet though, as testing will likely take place in overseas cities, and then local authorities will need to approve them before you’ll see them on a street near you.
As for buying your own, it’s likely we’ll see the technology first enhancing things like cruise control in luxury vehicles before driverless trickles down into mass market vehicles.
While we don’t know precisely what the future holds for driverless cars, we know exactly how technology enables speedy deliveries today.
